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While there may not be as many statistics to break down the game of football the way baseball is broken down, it sure is a close second. Every year those closest to the NFL find new and improved ways to break down what is really happening in games through statistical analysis, and they spend time studying how to approach the game. However, while some stats that don’t mean as much as they are hyped up to make people think they do, other key stats often go overlooked. Three of the most important stats that should always be considered when breaking down a sports betting matchup include yards per attempt, turnover differential, and the passer rating differential.
The turnover differential is always the most crucial to consider, as any coach will admit that games are won and lost based on that number. If a really good team that doesn’t turn the ball over often loses a close game after turning the ball over three times, then the likelihood is that by the next game they will cut down on those turnovers and bounce back with a better chance at winning. Yards per attempt is another important area to consider, as the ability to move the ball down the field in a hurry puts offenses in a good position to get the job done no matter what situation the team is in. So many games are won and lost in the final minutes, and the ability to move the ball in the clutch is crucial. That often comes down to the quarterback play, as the best teams usually have the best quarterbacks under center. When healthy, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees don’t lose a lot of games, even when their defenses or running games aren’t getting the job done. It is always a good idea to stay away from betting against a top-tier quarterback on Betonline, the final of the three most important factors that should not be overlooked.
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| When it comes to NFL, there are those that prefer to stick to the spread, money line, or playing the totals. One of the emerging sports betting trends to keep an eye on is the in-game betting, which has come through in sports such as the NBA as a popular option, but has not caught on yet when it comes to those that concentrate their efforts on football. The other option is to bet on one section of the game or the other, including betting on single halves and quarters. While certain trends and statistics could help handicap specific games, betting on small sample sizes such as a quarter could add even more of a handicap advantage.
For example, if an NFL team starts fast then it makes sense to take advantage of them by wagering on them in the first quarter. The spread for the New England Patriots in the first quarter of their game against the Denver Broncos in this past AFC Divisional round may have been only three-points, and considering the 14-point lead that they jumped out to it makes sense to jump on that action. Another area that this option can be beneficial is betting on later quarters, especially when one team has taken a commanding lead and is looking to rest their starters. Other teams could start slow, and then come alive as the game progresses, and at the same time there are injuries that could effect how the game carries on. All of these factors are important to consider when it comes to betting on halves and quarters, and could really help when breaking down games and beating the pay head bookie lines. |
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While it may take some time before it is recognized on the same level as sports betting against the spread or on straight-up outcomes, betting on NFL propositions has become one of the most popular forms of betting over the past couple of years, and is continuing to become more and more mainstream. Usually reserved for the biggest games, including those that fill the Primetime slots, there should be NFL props listed for every playoff game, which makes the postseason the perfect time to get in on the action.
One of the biggest reasons why the NFL prop bet has become so popular in such a short time is the value that it brings to the table. Unlike wagering on a given game, where the odds listed by the pay head bookies are in most cases universal, the props are in most cases created individually by the sports books. Examples of props can include betting on the amount of sacks the two defenses combine for, the number of completions or passing yards that a quarterback throws for, or a matchup of two wide receivers or running backs on opposing teams in a head-to-head battle for which of the two can gain more yards. If you can handicap the games, then it could be easier to figure out what the outcome will be for those props. The NFL props are usually created by the sportsbook to get more action from the recreational player, but if you play it smart it could result in some big wins.
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When it comes to online sports betting, a reverse bet is a type of bet that you can make with most sports books, but one of the least popular options. In fact, in most circumstances reverse bets won’t even show up on the radar, and some don’t even know what they are. A large part of the reason for this is because the bets can be confusing for those that have never heard about them or understand them. However, for those that have taken the time to figure them out, they can be a useful tool to becoming successful and making a profit whether in the NFL or any other sport.
A reverse bet is essentially just two “if” bets, a bet on two teams or more but with a different catch than a parlay when you take the odds listed by the pay head bookies. While in a parlay every team selected has to come through and be considered a winner in order for the ticket to have any validity as a winner, the reverse bet is different in that even having one winner on the list could lead to making some money. If you bet a three-game reverse bet and the first game wins, then the bet you planned to make on the second is active, and so on. This way, if you lose all of your bets you lose, and it is over. However, if you win your first bet, then you take the money from that winning and proceed to you second bet. If the second bet loses, then you still win the money from the first bet. If the second bet wins then you carry on under the same format going forward.
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After registering wins in each of their first five games, it appeared as though the Detroit Lions were destined to push the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers at the top of the NFC North. But with just two wins in seven games since, the Lions are barely holding on to an NFC Wild Card spot, and will need to find a way to end their skid against the lowly Minnesota Vikings this weekend before they end up on the outside looking in as eight-point favorites according to the pay head bookies.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions – 8
Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
If Detroit is going to have any chance at covering such a big number, it will start up front on their defense as they attempt to stop the Vikings’ rushing attack. Even though Minnesota will likely be without Adrian Peterson, the Lions will be missing a key piece of their own with Ndamakong Suh suspended, and they will still have to deal with Toby Gerhart, Detroit is giving up an average of 4.8 yards per carry on the ground, and that number needs to be sliced in half if they are going to control the tempo and eventual outcome of this NFL game. The Lions will also need quarterback Matt Stafford to perform at the highest level, and avoid the costly turnovers that have cost his team at points this season. Detroit needs to win this game, and likely will, but they will have a tough time covering the sports betting spread.
NFL Betting Pick: Minnesota Vikings + 8
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